The Effects of Climate Change on Phenology

Activity 1: Long-Term Temperature Trends

image (2)image (3)image (4)

Questions:

  1. For your scatter plot graphs, which variables did you plot on the x-axis and y-axis? Explain why.  On my scatter plot graph, I plotted years on the x-axis and temperature in Celsius on the y-axis. I choose to plot these variables on their respective axes because the y-axis should start at 0 and the years range from 1659-2016.
  2. Based on the trend line, describe how annual temperature has changed over time. How has temperature changed in Feb – April? In March – May?   Upon a casual inspection of any of the trend lines, it is clear that the data points are increasing, meaning the temperature is increasing over time. The trend line shows an annual temperature increase of roughly 1° Celsius throughout the 400 year period. The temperature change in February-April and March-May also reflect a temperature increase of 1° Celsius.
  3. Calculate the correlations (R²) in the Mean Temperature (Feb – April) vs. Year and Mean Temperature (March – May) vs. Year scatter plots. Which graph depicts the strongest relationship between temperature and year? Explain your answer.   The scatter plot displaying the strongest relationship correlation (R²) between temperature and year is the scatter plot of the mean temperature of March-May. The scatter plot has a R² of 1.01 compared to the 0.087 R² value of the February-April scatter plot. I believe the cause for this variance in the correlation between temperature and year is due to the fact that temperature has a larger range in the summer months than the winter months.

 

Activity 2: Pollination of the Early Spider Orchid (Ophrys sphegodes) by the Solitary Bee (Andrena nigroaenea) (Robbirt et al., 2014)

image (7)image (6)image (5)

Questions:

  1. At 7°C, how does the timing of the arrival of the bees compare to the peak flowering time?   At 7°C the arrival of the bees does not correlate to the peak flowering time. The data for the bees is random and does not have a clear correlation to the peak flowering time, which is highest at a lower Spring temperature.
  2. At 10°C, how does the timing of the arrival of the bees compare to the peak flowering time?  At 10°C, the bees arrival is at the highest point on the graph and the peak flowering time is at its lowest point.
  3. How does bee activity and orchid flowering timing compare from the beginning of the century (1848 – 1900) to the end of the century (1954 – 2006)?     Bee arrival is happening sooner as time progresses. From 1893-1900, bees arrived after an average of 74 days. In the period of 1954-2006, bees arrived after an average of 62 days, an entire 12 days quicker. Orchid flowering times have been blooming closer to March 1st and has been quicker in correlation to warmer temperatures. In orchids, this evolutionary change is more subtle. From 1954 to 2006, orchids are blooming 2 days sooner than the first reported range.
  4. Predict how continued increases in global temperature might affect the reproductive success and abundance/existence of Ophyrs sphegodes. Use evidence from the graph to support your prediction.                                      Continued increases in temperature should correlate to earlier blooming times of Ophyrs sphegodes. These flowers remain fertile to be pollinated by bees for 4-6 weeks. I predict that the orchids will continue to bloom faster with warmer temperatures until their reproductive window doesn’t match with the arrival of the bees. At this point, one species must quickly adapt or significant losses will occur.

 

Overview Questions:

As a science communicator, how would you use today’s lab experience to explain the pattern? Are there alternative hypotheses to explain what happened in 2017? (Cicadas)

Cicadas spend their developmental stages underground, 12 to 17 years in fact. Recently, cicadas have been crawling out of their underground dwellings years early. Keith Clay, a biologist at Indiana University in Bloomington, states that the cicadas biological clock has been miscalculating when it is time to emerge. Cicadas rely on a variety of environmental cues such as changing seasons and ground temperature to determine when to come out. My hypothesis explaining the 2017 cicada emergence is that an increase in temperature is causing an earlier blooming season and the insects come out sooner in response to environmental changes.

According to a 2016 Pew Research Poll, roughly half of United States adults say climate change is due to human activity and expect negative effects due to climate change. As a science student and communicator, what are examples climate change impacts that the general public might have experienced? What are some challenges associated with communicating to the general public about climate change? Identify possible steps towards addressing some of these challenges.

Climate changes can affect everyone. Your geographic location can increase your vulnerability to climate change. Older residents prefer to live in warmer areas of the country and make up larger share of the population in these regions. Elderly people are more sensitive to heat stress than the average individuals. With expected warming of temperatures in these areas, the elderly will be more vulnerable to heat-illnesses and trauma at an unparalleled rate.

Roughly 80% of the United States’ population lives in urban environments (epa.gov). As we learned through our excel graphs and lab readings, cities are prone to the heat island effect. Heat waves in these cities will increase and will cause the prices of utility bills such as air conditioning to increase.

Another interesting piece of information I read is that climate change will cause insurance prices to rise as well. Thinking about it logically, climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of life-threatening weather events, namely heat waves, droughts, and floods. These ecological disasters are known to increase property losses and disruptions to society. Your monthly insurance may cost more than it used to to account for and protect your losses in the event of a weather disaster.  

Climate change can alter food production as well. Farmers spend in excess of $11 billion annually just on pesticides alone (epa.gov). Unfortunately for farmers, pesky insects thrive in the altered conditions of climate change. Weeds, pests, and fungi love the warmer temperatures, wetter climate, and increases in carbon dioxide. If climate change continues at the same pace, weeds, insects, and fungi will further extend their range of conditions they can live in. Farmers who have never experienced a certain weed or pest in their fields, must quickly adapt or risk ruining a harvest. 

The Yale Program on Climate Change Communication released the data from a national study conducted on climate change. When asked if climate change effects weather, only 64% of people surveyed said yes. Another troubling statistic, only 71% surveyed believe climate change is occurring. The issue we are presented with is trying to correct and slow the effects of a worldwide epidemic that a large percentage of our country denies is occurring. Scientists must ask how can we reverse these effects and convince an unconvinced nation about climate change? 

We have a role as scientists to communicate efficiently and effectively to the public. The problem is that the United States public is not completely convinced on the topic of climate change and global warming. In order for the public to be convinced that these epidemics are occurring, than scientists must be more in my topic of last week’s blog: science communication.

Understanding the barriers the “non-believers” have that restrict their view on climate change, is the first step scientists must take in order to inform them. The public may be limited by a basic understanding of science and social and cultural factors. Identifying these factors will help to determine what method we can use to communicate effectively. The scientist now understanding what personal challenges and barriers have been set up, constructs an argument for climate change while addressing their concerns.

 

References:

Environmental Protection Agency. “Climate Impacts on Agriculture and Food Supply.” epa.gov, Environmental Protection Agency, January 19th, 2017, https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-agriculture-and-food-supply_.html

Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., Rosenthal, S., Cutler, M., & Kotcher, J. (2017). Climate change in the American mind: October 2017. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

 

Effective Communication in Science

What is Science Communication?

  1. What is science communication according to the presenters? How does it differ from Monica Feliu-Mojer’s definition of science communication?

Rhonda Smith, Director of Minerva Communication, presented that science communication is about communicating to non-experts. The term focuses on the “about” and asking “what it means”. Smith’s view on science communication is more about relating findings to investors that fund their work as scientists. Feliu-Mojer’s definition in contrast is more informal and defines science communication as broadly communication of science topics over any method.

  1. Why is science communication important to researchers and the general public?

Science communication is important to researchers receiving funding to convey the importance of their work and progress made to those who invest in their labs and lab research. A good scientist must be able to convince potential investors that their money spent is necessary and have an obligation to report their findings in order to keep receiving their funding. From an article, I found that the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology (ASBMB) developed the program, The Art of Science Communication. Taught to over 200 individuals, this eight-week-long online course teaches how to communicate science in an oral format to the public. It’s important to remember that the general public we are aiming to reach are not scientists. They need to be briefed in an informative way that also is not above their heads. Scientists must make their research accessible to the public.

  1. How does science communication differ from scientific dissemination? Why is each important?

Scientific dissemination is the scientist’s “day job”, if you will. It includes the scientist’s obligation and job duty to release information to the public in papers and see that their work is peer-reviewed. Although related, presenter Alexander Ruete states that the two are explicit. In their papers, they address science communication and scientific dissemination as being separate and in separate paragraphs. Scientific dissemination is important because if they cannot perform their basic job obligations and see that their work is reviewed, then they cannot effectively communicate to the public and may give inaccurate or misleading results.

Alan Alda: Science Communication

Image result for alan alda science communication
Alan Alda, Founder of the Alan Alda Center for Communicating Science at the University of Stony Brook
  1. According to Alda, “Everyone is too ignorant about science. That is what science is about: Science is about satisfying the ignorance we all naturally possess.” What do you think Alda is trying to convey in this statement about the role of the scientist and the general public? What challenges do you see with this type of engagement?

Alan Alda believes the role of science is to inform effectively. Alan himself has always been curious about science, once locating and interviewing several scientists for his show. Most people do not have this platform that he has and cannot actively seek out the scientists. In his statement, the role of the scientist is to have their findings published and easily accessible to the public. The public needs these reputable results and data at their fingertips. The challenge is that someone who is ignorant in a subject may not be willing to learn more about it. Although this may be the case, the scientist has an obligation to report their findings and make it available to the public and should have their work online for access for whenever the public is curious.

  1. How might you design your blog to reflect the aims of science communication?

I learned that I will need to make my blog more broad. If I overcomplicate my research and vocabulary, I will reach less people with my message. I must learn to communicate my ideas effectively while explaining my findings in an appropriate manner for a public website.

Monica Feliu-Mojer

  1. How does the author define science communication? How have you used science communication in your life?

Monica Feliu-Mojer defines science communication very broadly in an attempt to connect to more readers, writing that science communication is, “Any activity that involves one person transmitting science-related information to another, from peer-reviewed articles to tweets.” I have used science communication numerous times in my college career varying from a formal class presentation on ocean acidification to sending a friend the link to an article I found interesting.

  1. Why is effective communication important in science? How might scientists and non-scientists benefit from effective communication?

The subject of science is built upon the principle of spreading ideas and research to the scientific community. It’s important that these ideas and findings are clear and detailed so other scientists have the ability to peer-review your work. If your work is not communicated effectively, your body of work may not be properly understood. Feliu-Mojer argues for effective communication in science, claiming that effective communication “Builds support for science, promotes understanding of its wider relevance to society, and encourages more informed decision-making at all levels, from government to communities to individuals.” She believes that effective communication is one of the important core professional skills every student should have. Scientists and non-scientists can both benefit from effective communication. It is important in any profession to communicate effectively. Any job comes with duties and responsibilities that must be done in order for the company to succeed. As a manager or high-ranking employee, it is your job to effectively communicate what needs to be done with clear deadlines and procedure to ensure the success of the company. Ineffective communication is not sustainable in the scientific community or the non-science workforce.

  1. As a science student, what are some challenges associated with science communication? What might you gain from learning effective science communication?

Science communication is told to a broad audience, many who may not be aware of the issue you are presenting. I believe that some scientists struggle with science communication because they focus more on minor specifics in the research instead of the main picture. Albert Einstein once said, “If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.” Science can be extremely disciplined and can quickly alienate an audience if what you are presenting seems challenging to understand. By learning effective science communication, you can better engage your audience and best convey the message of your research. Effective communication is a key life skill you can translate to many aspects of your life such as relationships and work.

It’s OKAY to be SMART

What do you think might be the strengths and weaknesses of the blog?

For each blog post, Joe Hanson briefly introduces a topic in less than a paragraph and then publishes a video addressing this topic. The videos are visually appealing and helps viewers stay interested in the science presented. The message is clear to viewers and is very broad, letting the person watching think as they are brought data. Topics as detailed as the video I watched, “Where did life come from?”, are discussed in many segments introducing theories and complex information in a general way. Joe Hanson and his blog, It’s OKAY to be SMART are very effective at science communication. Hanson’s biggest weakness that I saw was his lack of consistency in adding new blog posts. He regularly goes months between videos and there is no set time he will release his posts. If I was a curious viewer who enjoyed his blog and was constantly wanting to better myself in science, I would be frustrated to wait many months for a video. I believe he would have more returning viewers if he was more consistent.

Take a look at some of the blog topics, which titles or topics were most appealing to you and why?

I was first drawn to “Where did life come from?” I thought it was an interesting topic and it was his most recent video, giving me the best idea of how his blog is operating. I believe that in a blog, the first posts are more about the writer finding his/her voice and establishing a confidence in what they write for the blog. I was drawn to the most recent post because I believed that would be the most representative of what the blogger is about because he has had time to perfect his work and best communicate to viewers.

Find read at least two blog posts. Which blog posts did you read and what did you think of them?

I watched the video blogs, “Where does life come from?” and “Why are salt & pepper on every table?”. The style of the blog is different from mine but it is interesting to see now as a blogger how fellow bloggers run a successful blog. I thought the videos were interesting, the origins of life is a very intriguing concept. I watched the salt and pepper video because I have always wondered why they can be found at every table. The video was informative and was refreshing to hear about something I did not know about.

What might you do differently or similarly with your blog?

Unlike Joe Hanson, I plan on communicating my ideas in written form during the semester. I am being graded on writing the blog, not filming it. I also will be more consistent in delivering my blog than Hanson has. He has been putting out videos randomly, with months in between. In contrast to Hanson’s inconsistency, I will be more routine in writing my blog every week. Similarly to Joe Hanson, my blog will be over topics as they relate to science. Differently however, I will have a more rigid, planned structure of topics I will blog about. Like I said, Hanson did not have a routine to posting his blog.

 

References:

Greer, Susanna; Alexander, Hannah; Baldwin, Thomas O.; Freeze, Hudson H.; Thompson, Morgan; et al. “The Art of Science Communication- A Novel Approach to Science Communication Training.” Journal of Microbiology & Biology Education Vol. 19. Issue 1 (2018): Pages 1-3. Print.

University of Utah. “Alan Alda Communication Photo.” Utah.edu, University of Utah, June 28th, 2016, https://fbs.admin.utah.edu/research-corner/2016/06/28/alan-alda-center-for-communicating-science-1-day-workshop-2/